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KMID : 0378019900330070058
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New Medical Journal
1990 Volume.33 No. 7 p.58 ~ p.64
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Survival Prediction in Primary Pontine Hemorrhage
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Abstract
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For development of a survival prediction model in primary pontine hemorrhage, the features of 37 consecutive patients (12 benign and 25 fatal) were analyzed retrospectively. After univariate analyses of 33 variables recruited from the preclinical, clinical, laboratory, and CT data at the emergency room, we selected 10 significant variables (p<0.05) systolic blood pressure(SBP), pulse rate(PR), Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS), leukocyte count (WBC ), volume of hematoma, extension of hematoma into the midbrain, midline crossing of hematoma, anteroposterior hematoma index(APHI), transverse hematoma index(THI), and number of CT slices showing hematoma. They were, then, subjected into a multivariate discriminant analysis. The resultant discriminant function(DF) included 6 variables, GCS, APHI, THI, PR, SBP, and WBC in an order of decreasing discriminating power, and was as follows
DF= - 0.2764 x GCS+0.5317 x APR x 10-1+0.6983 X THR x 10-1±0.3788 x PR x 10-1+ 0.1024 x SBP x 10-1+0.5649 x WBC x 10-4-5.6976.
Its hit rate was 100%.
We conclude that the survival prediction in primary pontine hemorrhage is most dependent on the initial level of consciousness and the size of hematoma and that the systolic blood pressure, the pulse rate, and the leukocyte count are also contributable in prediction of the prognosis of primary pontine hemorrhage. And, with the discriminant function developed here, the prognoses of the patients with PPH can be predicted more accurately.
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KEYWORD
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